The rivalry between Tennessee and Vanderbilt has been played for 128 years, but they have never met like this.
For the first time, the in-state rivals are set to face off as ranked teams, with Vanderbilt coming in ahead of Tennessee in the polls and carrying legitimate playoff hopes into Neyland Stadium.
Tennessee has a chance to do more than defend home turf. The Vols can damage the Commodores’ postseason path in what might be the highest-stakes game in the history of the series.
“I got a little taste of it last year and how hustle it was,” running back DeSean Bishop said. “Now being at Neyland, it’s going to be like no other.”
The matchup, on paper, comes down to two major keys for Tennessee: how the secondary handles explosive pass plays and how the defensive front contains Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.
Secondary under pressure
Pavia and fellow quarterback Joey Aguilar are aggressive passers who are not afraid to push the ball downfield. Both average around 285 passing yards per game.
Over his last three games, Pavia has generated 33 explosive completions for 868 yards.
A significant part of that production comes from his ability to extend plays. He manipulates the pocket, rolls out to avoid pressure, and buys time for receivers to uncover downfield. That leads to big gains after the catch.
Against Kentucky, nearly 40 percent of Vanderbilt’s passing yardage came after the catch as receivers found open space once Pavia escaped initial pressure.
In November games against Kentucky, Auburn and Texas, many of Pavia’s explosive throws went to the left side of the field. That tendency could put freshman defensive back Ty Redmond under stress, as he often lines up on the left side.
Redmond was targeted heavily in Tennessee’s loss to Georgia earlier in the season, but he has settled into his role since that trial by fire.
“I’m excited about the growth that he’s had, but also what’s coming in his future,” Heupel said. “I don’t think there was one light bulb moment where it just clicked and triggered. I just think it’s been constant growth from him throughout the course of the year.”
As a unit, Tennessee’s pass defense has been inconsistent.
The Vols are allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game and rank in the 100s nationally in that category. However, there have been recent signs of improvement. Tennessee held Oklahoma and Florida to fewer than 160 passing yards per game in its last two outings.
To slow Vanderbilt, the secondary will likely need to stay disciplined for several extra seconds on each snap, plastering receivers through extended plays and limiting chunk gains.
Defensive Line must disrupt Pavia
The second key for Tennessee is up front.
Pavia is most dangerous when he escapes the pocket and creates off schedule. Designed rollouts and improvisation are a staple of Vanderbilt’s offense, and his ability to throw or tuck and run when plays break down has fueled many of those explosive moments.
That puts pressure on Tennessee’s edge rushers, including Joshua Josephs and Caleb Herring, to set the tone.
Their task is straightforward but difficult: keep Pavia uncomfortable, restrict his escape lanes and prevent him from working from a clean pocket for long stretches.
“We got to match everything out… and play assignment sound. But a part of that is also applying pressure, not letting him sit back there and pad the football all day long. While you’re doing that, (Pavia’s) got the ability to escape and make plays. We got to do a great job of not letting him outside of the pocket.”
There is a blueprint.
Texas sacked Pavia six times, taking advantage of his tendency to hold on to the ball a beat too long. If Tennessee can generate similar disruption, it could change the rhythm of Vanderbilt’s offense and limit Pavia’s ability to create explosives.
Aguilar’s role on offense
On the other side, Tennessee needs Aguilar to resemble the version of himself that showed up against Georgia and Florida.
In those games, Aguilar was decisive, delivered the ball into tight windows and operated a more uptempo, pass-friendly offense. If the Vols can build in three to four deep targets and keep him in rhythm, Aguilar should be able to play with the confidence and comfort he has shown for much of the season.
Aguilar’s junior college head coach, Mike Darr, has spoken about the quarterback’s ability to elevate his play in big moments.
With Vanderbilt’s ranking and playoff position adding to the stage, Aguilar is facing one of the biggest games of his Tennessee career.
Stakes higher than ever
A bowl game in Florida is on the line for Tennessee. The Vols are chasing a 10th win, looking to defend home turf and eager for the chance to derail Vanderbilt’s postseason dreams.
In 128 years of this rivalry, the stakes have rarely, if ever, been higher.
VFL Todd Kelly Jr. will offer his own perspective on the matchup and his key individual battle in his “Squeeze” segment Friday’s Live Ball show at 8:30 p.m.
