Tennessee and Kentucky clash Saturday at Food City Center coming off a pair of dramatic comeback victories.
The Vols survived Texas A&M in double overtime, while the Wildcats erased an 18-point deficit at the buzzer against LSU.
Despite the similar momentum, the Kentucky team Tennessee will host looks far different than the one it faced just a season ago.
This Wildcats group arrives still searching for an identity, navigating injuries, lineup changes, and offensive limitations that have forced head coach Mark Pope to rethink how his team wins games.
“This Kentucky team is nowhere close to that,” Courier Journal Sports beat writer Ryan Black said, referencing last season’s perimeter success. “They just cannot shoot the ball from the perimeter.”
From shooters to grinders
Last season, Kentucky torched Tennessee’s elite defense by hitting 50% of its three-point attempts in both regular-season meetings. That formula is no longer available.
“Mark Pope’s been very honest about like, ‘Hey, you know this team gonna have to go out and win some really ugly ball games,’” Black said. “They’re just not going to go out and be this kind of esthetically pleasing type unit that you saw last season.”
Instead, Kentucky has slowed games down and leaned on physical defense to stay competitive.
“They just got to claw it out by mucking up basketball,” Black said.
Injuries and constant lineup changes
Kentucky’s struggles have been compounded by injuries that have prevented any consistent rotation from forming.
“One piece comes in and one goes out, and they’re just kind of constantly shuffled,” Black said.
Jayden Quaintance, a transfer addition returning from an ACL injury, has appeared in only four games. Mouhamed Dioubate missed nearly a month with a high ankle sprain. More recently, players have gone from not playing at all to starting the next game.
“They’re just throwing everything against the wall right now because they just don’t really have any very defined set rotations,” Black said.
Freshmen running the show
With Kentucky’s only true point guard lost for the season, ball-handling duties have largely fallen on freshman Denzel Aberdeen.
“One of those four guys are going to have to become the primary ball handler when they’re on the floor,” Black said. “Really the majority of the time now, the quote, unquote, point guard duties are really going to fall to Aberdeen.”
Aberdeen showed his upside in the comeback win over LSU.
“He had no points in the first half,” Black said. “Came out the second half, played all 20 minutes and scored 17 points, and really was one of the biggest reasons why they were able to, you know, engineer that come from behind.”
Turnovers loom large
For Tennessee, one stat could decide the game: turnovers.
“When they’re in the positive, but especially if they’re two to three to one, you really should never lose any game,” Black said of Kentucky’s assist-to-turnover ratio. “But there have been quite a few games this season that Kentucky has either barely been a one to one, and sometimes they’ve even been negative.”
If that trend continues, Black said, “that’s going to make it very hard for them to win Saturday.”
What Kentucky needs to win
Kentucky’s margin for error is slim.
“If they can just even shoot over 40% in a game,” Black said. “If they get over 75 points, you’re like, ‘Well, man, that’s a pretty decent night for this team.’”
The Wildcats also need help beyond Otega Oweh.
“If anybody other than Otega Oweh can get more than 15,” Black said, “that gives them a pretty decent shot of winning Saturday.”
For Tennessee, the formula is simple: protect the ball, force Kentucky into half-court offense, and make the Wildcats prove they can score.
If the Vols can dictate the game and take care of their business, they may finally flip the recent script at home.
